1月初，黑石集团咨询合伙人业务副董事长拜伦· 维恩公布了他预测的2016年“意外”事件。
這是維恩第31次就新一年的經濟、金融市場和政治“意外”事件發表看法。維恩所說的“意外”是指普通投資者認爲可能性只有三分之一，但在他看來很有可能，或者說概率超過50%的事件。維恩從1986年開始發布這樣的預期，當時他還是摩根士丹利的首席美國投資策略分析師。
1、希拉里· 克林顿在总统选举中获胜，击败了泰德· 科鲁兹。托她的福，民主在11月份控制了参议院。据说，共和总统候选人在关键问题上的极端态度是形成这种局面的原因。为两投票的人数均低于预期。
2、美國股市下行，原因是公司業績低迷，利潤率面臨壓力（工資上升而且缺乏定價能力）以及市盈率回落。全球局勢不穩定是美股表現令人失望的另一個原因，這讓投資者把大量現金留在手中。
3、2015年12月提高利率後，美聯儲在2016年僅加息一次，將短期利率上調0.25個百分點，而非像12月16日暗示的那樣多次加息。經濟疲軟，公司業績差以及新興市場陷入困境是美聯儲采取謹慎策略的原因。2016年下半年，美聯儲將積極考慮讓政策轉向，甚至真的下調利率。2016年美國真實GDP增長率低于2%。
4、美國經濟和股市的低迷表現促使海外投資者減持美股。大選競爭激烈造成政策面出現不確定因素，這讓今後的前景更不明朗。隨著美元貶值，歐元/美元彙率上漲至1.20。
5、中國經濟幾乎未能避免硬著陸，而且低迷的經濟無法爲年輕人創造充足的就業機會。不良貸款讓中國銀行(601988,股吧)業陷入困境。債務/GDP比例已達到250%。雖然零售和汽車銷量表現良好而且工業産值上升，但經濟增速降至5%以下。爲促進出口，美元/人民幣彙率被調整至7。
6、難民危機讓歐盟出現分歧，歐盟解體再次成爲人們談論的話題。此番變化的背後原因是政界向極右的民族主義政策靠攏。沒有形成任何決議，但歐元及其支持者的長期前景蒙上了一層陰影。
7、油價降至30多美元。全球經濟增長緩慢是主要原因，來自伊朗的新增供應以及沙特不願限制原油出口也起了一定作用。勘探開采規模萎縮可能會在某個時刻帶動油價上行，但2016年不會出現供給緊張局面。
8、紐約和倫敦的高檔住宅市場急劇滑坡。俄羅斯和中國買家的身影將從這兩座城市消失。低油價也使中東買家態度謹慎。許多價格昂貴的公寓滯銷，開發商因此面臨財務壓力。
9、美國經濟和股市的低迷表現使美國10年期國債的收益率一直低于2.5%。投資者繼續把債券視爲避風港。
10、債務負擔沈重以及需求低迷使全球經濟增長率降至2%。全球經濟表現未達到預期的原因是美國、中國及其他新興市場的國民生産總值下降。
維恩還提出了一些未能入選前十的“意外”事件。他覺得人們不能掉以輕心，因爲這些預期也“很有可能”成爲現實。
11、由于加大了安保力度，和伊斯蘭國或基地組織有關的恐怖分子未能在2016年對美國或歐洲發動造成百人及以上傷亡的大規模襲擊。盡管如此，美國在2016年接收的中東難民數量仍非常有限。
12、日本擺脫了2015年下半年的經濟衰退困境，原因是“安倍經濟學”開始發揮作用。日本經濟增長了1%，但日元進一步貶值，美元/日元彙率升至130。日經指數上漲到了22000點。
13、投資者對金融工程的態度變得強硬起來。他們意識到，股票回購、並購和避稅也許能提高短期每股收益，但他們更願意看到資本設備和研發投資提高長期增長率。股票估值水平受到打擊。
14、2016年成爲制藥行業的“突破年”。一些治療癌症、心髒病、糖尿病、帕金森症和失憶症的新藥獲准投入使用。開發這些突破性新藥的成本及其療效讓那些批評藥品定價的總統候選人態度軟化。人們的預期壽命繼續提高，進而給福利項目帶來了財務壓力。
15、大宗商品價格企穩，原因是農産品(000061,股吧)和工業原料制造商減産。新興經濟體走出衰退陰霾，其股市在2016年的好轉讓所有人都大爲吃驚。（財富中文網）
譯者：Charlie
校對：詹妮
Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of Surprises for 2016.
This is the 31st year Wien has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. He defines a “surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Wien started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley.
1、Riding on the coattails of Hillary Clinton, the winner of the presidential race against Ted Cruz, the Democrats gain control of the Senate in November. The extreme positions of the Republican presidential candidate on key issues are cited as factors contributing to this outcome. Turnout is below expectations for both political parties.
2、The U.S. equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price/earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance.
3、After the December rate increase, the Federal Reserve raises short-term interest rates by 25 basis points only once during 2016. This is in spite of having indicated on Dec. 16 that they would do more. A weak economy, poor corporate performance and struggling emerging markets are behind the cautious policy. Reversing course and actually reducing rates is actively considered later in the year. Real gross domestic product in the U.S. is below 2% for 2016.
4、The weak American economy and the soft equitymarket cause overseas investors to reduce their holdings of American stocks. An uncertain policy agenda as a result of a heated presidential campaign further confuses the outlook. The dollar declines to 1.20 against the euro.
5、China barely avoids a hard landing and its soft economy fails to produce enough new jobs to satisfy its young people. Chinese banks get in trouble because of non-performing loans. Debt-to-GDP is now 250%. Growth drops below 5% even though retail and auto sales are good and industrial production is up. The yuan is adjusted to seven against the dollar to stimulate exports.
6、The refugee crisis proves divisive for the European Union and breaking it up is again on the table. The political shift toward the nationalist policies of the extreme right is behind the change in mood. No decision is made, but the long-term outlook for the euro and its supporters darkens.
7、Oil languishes in the $30s. Slow growth around the world is the major factor, but additional production from Iran and the unwillingness of Saudi Arabia to limit shipments also play a role. Diminished exploration and development may result in higher prices at some point, but supply/demand strains do not appear in 2016.
8、High-end residential real estate in New York and London has a sharp downturn. Russian and Chinese buyers disappear from the market in both places. Low oil prices prompt caution among Middle East buyers. Many expensive condominiums remain unsold, putting developers under financial stress.
9、The soft U.S. economy and the weakness in the equity market keep the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury below 2.5%. Investors continue to show a preference for bonds as a safe haven.
10、Burdened by heavy debt and weak demand, global growth falls to 2%. Softer GNP in the United States as well as China and other emerging markets is behind the weaker than expected performance.
Wien also has a few more”also-ran” surprises to share, but he isn’t quite comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”
11、As a result of enhanced security efforts, terrorist groups associated with ISIS and al Qaeda do NOT mount a major strike involving 100 or more casualties against targets in the U.S. or Europe in 2016. Even so, the U.S. accepts only a very limited number of asylum seekers from the Middle East during the year.
12、Japan pulls out of its 2015 second half recessionas Abenomics starts working. The economy grows 1%, but the yen weakens further to 130 to the dollar. The Nikkei rallies to 22,000.
13、Investors get tough on financial engineering. They realize that share buybacks, M&A, and inversions may give a boost to earnings per share in the short term, but they would rather see investment in capital equipment and research that would improve long-term growth. Multiples suffer.
14、2016 turns out to be the year of breakthroughs in pharmaceuticals. Several new drugs are approved to treat cancer, heart disease, diabetes, Parkinson’s and memory loss. The cost of developing the breakthrough drugs and their efficacy encourage the political candidates to soften their criticism of pill pricing. Life expectancy will continue to increase, resulting in financial pressure on entitlement programs.
15、Commodity prices stabilize as agricultural and industrial material manufacturers cut production. Emerging market economies come out of their recessions and their equity markets astonish everyone by becoming positive performers in 2016.
（责任编辑：陶海玲 HF003）